Americans say the economy is bad but keep spending. Don’t mistake the midterm polls for a forecast

Americans are expressing deep concern about the economy, but their reported mood does not fully match their recent behavior. Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since 2014, while spending increased in August.

That contrast offers a warning for business leaders assessing demand, public opinion and political signals. Sentiment can indicate how people feel at a given moment, but it does not necessarily predict what they will do next.

The gap between confidence and spending

The latest figures present two different views of the consumer. Confidence points to a highly negative assessment of economic conditions. August spending, however, moved higher.

The opposing signals make it difficult to use confidence alone as a guide to consumer behavior. Businesses looking only at pessimistic responses could overlook the spending decisions people are still making.

A broader lesson for business leaders

Kari Butcher, Burson’s Chair for Intelligence & Insights for the Americas, says leaders make a similar mistake with election polling. They may treat what people say as a prediction of what they will do, rather than as a measure of current opinion.

The same distinction applies to the economy. Consumer sentiment and political polling can provide useful information about perceptions, but neither should automatically be treated as a forecast of future actions.

Why the distinction matters

For companies, the divergence between confidence and spending underscores the importance of separating stated views from observed behavior. The available information does not establish what will happen next, but it does show why a single measure of sentiment may offer an incomplete picture.