IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, warns of rising risks from war and debt

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, pointing to AI investment as a source of support for the world economy. At the same time, the fund warned that rising risks could test the economy’s resilience.

AI investment supports the outlook

Investment linked to artificial intelligence is helping cushion the global economy, according to the source. That support is central to the improved 2026 outlook and provides a counterweight to broader pressures facing economic activity.

War and debt remain key risks

The stronger forecast does not remove uncertainty. The IMF highlighted risks from war and debt, both of which could challenge the durability of the current expansion. The warning places the upgraded forecast alongside concerns about the global economy’s ability to absorb further shocks.

A more resilient economy under pressure

The latest outlook presents a mixed picture: global growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2026, while AI investment is providing momentum. However, the IMF’s warning suggests that the outlook remains exposed to developments involving conflict and debt.

For businesses and markets, the forecast signals continued support from technology investment, but also underscores the risks that could test global economic resilience.