US EIA lifts Brent forecast to $98 as Iran war tightens global supplies

The US Energy Information Administration has lifted its forecast for Brent crude prices in 2026, projecting an average of about $98 a barrel.

The revised estimate represents an 8% increase from the agency’s previous projection and was included in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Tighter global supply outlook

The updated forecast comes against a backdrop of tightening global supplies linked to the Iran war. Brent is the global benchmark used to track international crude prices, making the EIA’s projection a closely watched indicator for the oil market.

For producers, consumers and businesses exposed to energy costs, the higher estimate signals a more expensive crude market in the EIA’s 2026 outlook. However, the information provided does not include further details on the agency’s assumptions or the expected effect on specific industries.

What the forecast shows

• The EIA expects Brent crude to average about $98 a barrel in 2026.
• The forecast is 8% higher than the previous projection.
• The estimate appears in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
• The outlook reflects tighter global supplies linked to the Iran war.

The revised figure marks a significant change from the EIA’s earlier view and provides the agency’s latest benchmark for 2026 oil prices.