US Treasury projects $618 billion borrowing in Q4, $800 billion in Q1 2027

The U.S. Treasury projects borrowing of $618 billion in the fourth quarter, followed by $800 billion in the first quarter of 2027.

Borrowing outlook

The estimates point to a combined $1.418 trillion in projected borrowing across the two quarters. The fourth-quarter projection is lower than the amount anticipated for the opening quarter of 2027.

The figures outline the Treasury’s expected borrowing requirements over the period and provide a forward view of planned government financing. The projection for the first quarter of 2027 represents the larger of the two amounts.

What the figures show

• Projected fourth-quarter borrowing: $618 billion.
• Projected first-quarter 2027 borrowing: $800 billion.
• Combined projected borrowing for both periods: $1.418 trillion.

The Treasury’s announcement gives markets and businesses a clear set of borrowing estimates for the end of the current period and the start of 2027. No further details on the assumptions behind the projections were provided in the available information.

Outlook

The projections currently cover the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2027. The first-quarter estimate is $182 billion higher than the fourth-quarter figure, making it the more substantial borrowing projection in the reported outlook.